Abstract

We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity patterns. In susceptible-infected-removed-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global invasion threshold. We provide an explicit expression of the threshold that sets a critical value of the diffusion/mobility rate below, which the epidemic is not able to spread to a macroscopic fraction of subpopulations. The invasion threshold is found to be affected by the topological fluctuations of the metapopulation network. The results presented provide a general framework for the understanding of the effect of travel restrictions in epidemic containment.

Notes

Originally published in Physical Review Letters, v.99 no.14 (2007), 148701. DOI:10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.148701. Dr. Vespignani is affiliated with Northeastern University as of the time of deposit.

Keywords

invasion threshold, infectious disease, travel, metapopulation networks

Subject Categories

Communicable diseases, Epidemics

Disciplines

Physics

Publisher

American Physical Society

Publication Date

10-5-2007

Rights Information

©2007 American Physical Society

Rights Holder

American Physical Society

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